TECHNICAL ANALYSES

Maritime cargo is divided into two major categories: General and Bulk cargo. General Cargo is described as commodities packaged in units, as opposed to bulk shipments of large quantities of material (gasoline, oil, sand, cement, etc.) which are shipped/transported in their free-flowing form. While bulk cargo is simply separated into either dry or liquid commodities, General cargo is further classified as:
  • Breakbulk - individually boxed, crated, strapped on pallets
  • Neobulk - Heavy construction equipment/machinery, lumber, steel, unitized/palletized loads of building materials
  • Containers - various sizes 8'-45'
  • Automobiles - (also shipped in containers)

The analyses contained in this study verify/quantify substantiate/establish the spatial requirements for the projected volumes of various cargo. Predicting the level of cargo activity as far in the future as the year 2020 is a difficult task. Historical cargo data, obtained from Harbors division Fiscal Office wharfage statistics were found to correlate well with the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism's State Data Book historical compilation of Per Capita Gross State Product.
  • Gross State Product (GSP) with Total Tonnage Less Dry Bulk 0.92717
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $) with Total Tonnage 0.926913
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $) with Total Tonnage Less Dry Bulk 0.916903
  • GSP with Total Tonnage Less Liquid/Dry Bulk 0.906852
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $) with Total Tonnage Less Liquid/Dry Bulk 0.906005
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $) Total Tonnage Less Liquid/Dry Bulk and Autos 0.903512
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $) with Total Less Liquid Bulk 0.901694
  • GSP with Total Tonnage 0.901589

Regression Output
  • Constant -2504168
  • Standard Error of Y Estimated 130921
  • R Squared 0.859167
  • Number of Observations 12
  • Degrees of Freedom 10
  • X Coefficient(s) 276.9537
  • Standard Error of Coefficient 35.45852

Other high correlatives were produced with the correlation/linking/combining of:
  • Gross State Product (GSP) with Total Tonnage Less Dry Bulk 0.92717
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $s) with Total Tonnage 0.926913
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $s) with Total Tonnage Less Dry Bulk 0.916903
  • GSP with Total Tonnage Less Dry & Liquid Bulk 0.906852
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $s) with Total Tonnage Less Dry & Liquid 0.906005
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $s) with Total Tonnage Less Dry, Liquid, Auto 0.903512
  • Per Capita GSP (1982 $s) with Total Tonnage Less Liquid Bulk 0.901694
  • GSP with Total Tonnage 0.901589

These above R-squared factors were presented to the Task Force during the July 24, 1997 meeting. The Task Force voted to utilize the Total Tonnage with Per Capita Gross State Product (1982 $). The State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism published its 2020 socio-economic data projections in the "Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawaii to 2020" in May 1997. This publication includes the Gross State Product 2020 and the State resident population 2020 forecast. The annual rate of growth was computed and applied to 1997 Total Tonnage. The result is an estimated 3,221,683 short tons (2,000 pounds) of general, liquid and dry bulk cargo moved through Hilo and Kawaihae harbors. br> DBEDT 2020 SERIES PROJECTIONS
1995-2020 Average Annual Growth Rate
1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
Gross State Product 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%
As the methodologies used to determine spatial requirements for interisland general cargo, neobulk and overseas containerized cargo differ, these cargo types/tonnages were extarcted separately from the wharfage statistics and compared to the total tonnage entire sum. The following methodologies, industry-approved formulae were applied to determine 2020 acreage requirements:
Interisland general cargo historically accounted for an average 24.6% of total cargo tonnages shipped to/from the island of Hawaii.
  • 1983 23.0%
  • 1984 N/A
  • 1985 N/A
  • 1986 23.6%
  • 1987 23.0%
  • 1988 23.1%
  • 1989 20.9%
  • 1990 21.5%
  • 1991 27.3%
  • 1992 24.0%
  • 1993 23.9%
  • 1994 27.5%
  • 1995 27.5%
  • 1996 27.6%

Neobulk accounted for an average 10.6% of the total tonnage.
  • 1983 10.3%
  • 1984 N/A
  • 1985 13.0%
  • 1986 10.9%
  • 1987 10.2%
  • 1988 12.0%
  • 1989 13.5%
  • 1990 14.5%
  • 1991 11.8%
  • 1992 11.2%
  • 1993 10.9%
  • 1994 5.7%
  • 1995 6.9%
  • 1996 6.9%
    Total tonnage for the island of Hawaii:
  • 1983 1,804,603
  • 1984 1,560,821
  • 1985 1,751,560
  • 1986 1,688,802
  • 1987 1,797,216
  • 1988 2,050,243
  • 1989 2,078,927
  • 1990 2,226,917
  • 1991 2,327,777
  • 1992 2,247,989
  • 1993 2,167,142
  • 1994 1,872,488
  • 1995 1,749,949
  • 1996 1,787,804
    The term "overseas containers" is used to to distinguish Matson's predominantly container operations. Much of Matson's container cargo is shipped from the west coast U.S.A. through Honolulu to Hawaii, and is thus being categorized as overseas containers. The average tonnage of overseas containers accounts for 17.4% of all cargo.
  • 1983 8.9%
  • 1984 N/A
  • 1985 N/A
  • 1986 11.8%
  • 1987 15.2%
  • 1988 14.3%
  • 1989 17.3%
  • 1990 17.3%
  • 1991 15.2%
  • 1992 22.4%
  • 1993 16.6%
  • 1994 18.8%
  • 1995 18.4%
  • 1996 19.0%
    The methodology applied to container operations in the Oahu Commercial Harbors 2020 Master Plan (May 1997) addressed containers as measured by their twenty-foot equivalent units or TEUs. The purpose of measuring containers by their TEUs is to standardize/reduce/translate the various container sizes to a standard unit: 8 feet high, 8 feet wide, 20 feet long. A 20' container = 1 TEU. A 45' container = 2.25 TEUs. This simplifies and increases the accuracy of estimating the spatial requirements of the projected 2020 container tonnage.
    An industry-approved formula for TEUs per acre per year is the number of storage slots (S) mulitplied by the number of days in a year (D) multiplied by the quotient of the capacity factor divided by the dwell time (C/Dw) multiplied by the peaking factor (P).
    S x D x (C/Dw) x P = TEUs per acre per year
    On the island of Hawaii, the overseas containers are brought off the barges and loaded onto chassis for delivery to the customer. Mounted on chassis, the containers cannot be stacked and an acceptable number of TEUs that can be stored in an acre is understandably less than a straddle operation. 90 TEUs were set as the number of storage slots, reflecting a pure chassis operation. The overseas container yard is open every day of the year except Bloody Monday, Christmas and New Year's Day. The number of days in the year is therefore set at 362.
    The capacity factor is set at 80% to allow for room on the cargo yard for unloading or receiving containers. If the cargo yard is completely full when a barge calls with a full shipment of containers, there would be no room on the yard for the barge's containers until some of the containers are moved off the barge, there is no room on the barge for the new shipment.
    Dwell time, or average number of days a container sits in the yard before it is delivered to or picked up by the customer varies. Hilo Harbor's average dwell time is 6.69 days. Kawaihae Harbor's average dwell time is 5.35 days.
    The peaking factor is the quotient of the peak month over the average month utilization: 1.2.
    Hilo Harbor is able to manage 4,675 TEUs per acre per year. 90 x 362 x (.8/6.69) x 1.2.
    Kawaihae Harbor can accommodate 5,846 TEUs per acre per year. 90 x 362 x (.8/5.35) x 1.2.
    The projected volume of overseas cargo is estimated at 561,888.5 short tons. The average weight per TEU is 7 short tons. 561,888.5/7 = 80,269.8 TEUs.
    The DOT Statewide Transportation Planning Office provided us Frederick Harris' Working Paper Number 6, August 1994, which forecasts 2020 socio-economic data by Transportation Analysis Zones for Hawaii County's Land Transportation Masterplan. The population projections were adjusted to reflect DBEDT's 2020 population projection and are further broken down/divided/separated by Judicial District. 49.1% of the population is estimated to reside in the East Hawaii districts of North Hilo, South Hilo, Puna and Ka'u. 50.9% of the population is estimated to reside in the West Hawaii districts of North Kohala, South Kohala, Hamakua, North Kona and South Kona. Because the historical cargo tonnages correlated well with a measure of population (Per Capita Gross State Product) this 49.1/50.9 population split is used to estimate the cargo split between Hilo and Kawaihae Harbor.
    When the 49.1/50.9 Hilo/Kawaihae ratio is applied to the 2020 estimate of cargo tonnage, 3,221,683 short tons, the result is an estimated 1,581,846.4 short tons being shipped through Hilo Harbor in 2020 and an estimated 1,639,836.6 short tons being shipped through Kawaihae Harbor in 2020.
    Further applying the historical averages of inter-island, overseas, neobulk and automobile tonnages to the 2020 estimates produced a breakdown of various cargo quantities.

     Inter-IslandOverseasNewobulkAuto
     24.6%17.4%10.6%2.0%
    HILO389,134.2275,241.3167,675.731,110.7
    KAWAIHAE403,399.8285,331.6173,822.732,251.2